11/20/16 - Reading "The Simple Path to Wealth", by JL Collins.
You only need three investment tools:
Source for Vanguard/Fidelity alternatives: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Fidelity
12/26/15 - Reading "The Little Book of BIG Dividend: A Safe Formula for Guaranteed Returns" by Charles B. Carlson, CFA.
This book proposes an approach to finding stocks which pay dividends as well as promising total returns on the stock at sale.
Site is here: http://www.bigsafedividends.com/
Here's their "BSD" chart...it looks like they keep it up-to-date: http://www.bigsafedividends.com/bsdchart.aspx
|75% < Ratio < 90%||Fair Valued|
|90% < Ratio < 115%||Modestly Overvalued|
|Ratio > 115%||Significantly Overvalued|
|Where are we today...||http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php|
|LOW BETA STOCKS|
|Your Money Ratios: 8 Simple Tools for Financial Security|
|Age 65 & 80% Income Replacement||Mortgage Debt||Education Debt||Investements||Disability||Life Insurance||LTC Ratio|
|Age||Capital to Income Ratio||Savings Ratio||Mortgage to Income Ratio||Debt to Avg Income Ratio||Stocks ( i)||Bonds ( i)||% of Monthly Income||Insurance to Income Ratio||Project Ratirement Income to LTC Costs|
NOTES: (these are very general...just trying to develop my approach over time by capturing my thoughts so I can see them later)
(1) TREASURY CURVE
For example, is a downturn a "correction" (10%), a "bear market" (20%), or something more? A correction can be a more normal occurrence in a cycle, but a bear market can put a damper on investor sentiment because no one knows when the decline will stop and whether something more substantial is looming.
Looking at the shape of the Treasury Yield Curve can provide some indication of larger market sentiment. A healthy curve shows that investors expect a greater return for lending money over a longer period of time. However, an unhealthy (inverted) curve may indicate doubts about the long term economic expansion. An inverted curve has preceeded each recession since WWII.
Where can I see the current treasury curve graphed? https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php (Note to self: consider plotting this using treasury.gov data in the future (?))
(2) ECONOMIC DATA
GDP and Unemployment Is GDP high, or at least inline with historical norms? Is Unemployment low, or at least inline with historical norms?
Here's the video on marketwatch.com that prompted this examination. Most of the info comes from this piece from Ellie Ismailidou. http://www.marketwatch.com/video/explainomics/how-to-tell-the-difference-between-a-market-crash-and-a-correction/4EB0B6E3-D2E7-40C6-A436-9C68525123E6.html